SYDNEY, NSW – 18 Sept, 2026 – Financial markets price an 82% to 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia board meeting on September 28–29, 2026. This move would lift the official cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60%.
📅 Meeting & Market Details
Check live expectations via the RBA Rate Tracker – ASX to monitor shifting interbank cash rate futures.
- Meeting dates:
- September 28–29, 2026
- Current cash rate:
- 4.35% since August 2026
- Implied hike size:
- Plus 25 basis points to 4.60%
📊 Economic Drivers
- Inflation data:
- Annual CPI steady at 3.5% in July
- Trimmed mean stuck high at 3.6%
- RBA commentary:
- Governor Bullock flagged rising inflation fears
- Officials stress policy must become more restrictive
🔎 Institutional Forecasts
| Institution | Expected Next Move | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Market Pricing | +0.25% Hike | September 2026 |
| NAB | +0.25% Hike | September 2026 |
| CBA / ANZ / Westpac | +0.25% Hike | November 2026 |
💡 Action Plan for Borrowers
- Review mortgage budget:
- Calculate an extra ~$150 per month per $1M debt
- Contact your lender:
- Ask for a better competitive interest rate discount
- Evaluate fixed options:
- Compare current variable rates against emerging fixed terms
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